Weekly US jobless claims dip, but some economists concerned
One of the most-closely tracked indicators of conditions in the US jobs market came in just a tad worse-than-expected on Thursday, nevertheless some economists expressed concern.
According to the Department of Labor, initial jobless claims for the week ending on 1 December dipped by 4,000 to reach 231,000 (consensus: 230,000), while the prior week's reading was revised up marginally, by 1,000 to 234,000.
The four-week moving average, which aims to smoothe out the fluctuations in the data from one week to the next, did jump by 4,250 to 228,000.
Secondary unemployment claims on the other hand, which track those claims that are not being submitted for the first time and reference the week before last, decreased by 74,000 to hit 1.631m.
Reacting to the latest jobless claims figures, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macroeconomics said the US labour market remained in "great shape" overall, but that these numbers needed to be monitored "very closely".
Shepherdson had been expecting a larger drop in claims after the prior week's Thanksgiving Day inspired jump, which led to problems in seasonally adjusting the figures because the holiday arrived earlier this year.
"But this is a much smaller decline than implied by previous experience and the numbers are starting to become disconcerting. The initial uptick came after Hurricanes Florence and Michael but it’s hard to believe they are still holding up claims," he argued.
"The numbers are noisy at this time of year but we can’t rule out the idea that the trade war is taking some toll, probably in sectors they were supposed to help. The labor market overall is still in great shape, but these numbers need to be watched very closely."