US consumer confidence dips in January, Univ. of Michigan says
Consumer confidence in the US dipped at the start of January amid a small increase in expectations for gas prices and uncertainty around the lagged impact of tax cuts, according to the results of one of the most closely-followed sentiment surveys.
The University of Michigan's headline consumer confidence index for January slipped from 95.9 at the end of December to 94.4 for the start of January.
Economists had projected a reading of 97.0.
Weakness was concentrated in the sub-index of current economic conditions, which fell back from a reading of 113.8 to print at 109.2.
The other main sub-index on the other hand, linked to consumer expectations, picked-up from a reading of 84.3 to 84.8.
In particular, Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist, highlighted the persistent strength in survey measures of personal finances and buying plans.
Nonetheless, "favorable levels of buying conditions for household durables have receded to preholiday levels in early January, largely due to less attractive pricing," he said.
As well, near and longer term expectations for gas prices recorded increases, although they remained well below their peaks.
Curtin added: "The disconnect between the future outlook assessment and the largely positive view of the tax reform is due to uncertainties about the delayed impact of the tax reforms on the consumers. Some of the uncertainty is related to how much a cut or an increase people, especially high income households who live in high-tax states, face."
For his part, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, did not hide his surprise at Friday's reading, pointing out that its results were at odds with those of the Bloomberg consumer comfort survey and the TIPP online survey.
"We think a clear rebound in February and/or a an upward revision in the final Jan reading, with both current conditions and expectations rising, is a good bet."