Index of leading economic indicators beats forecasts in July, Conference Board says
A well-known gauge of lead indicators for the US economy advanced more quickly than expected last month.
The US Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose at a 0.6% clip month-on-month in July, ahead of economists' median forecast for a reading of 0.4%.
"The U.S. LEI increased in July, suggesting the US economy will continue expanding at a solid pace for the remainder of this year," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board.
According to the Conference Board, gains among the different components that make up the LEI were widespread, with unemployment claims, the financial components, including stock prices, the government bond curve and the leading credit index, and the ISM survey's new orders subindex making the biggest positive contributions.
Perhaps, yet just the day before, strategists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch had mused: "The US yield curve is now <25bps from inversion (has signaled 7 out of past 7 recessions).
"We suspect the weak US housing market portends a shift in the US macro narrative to peak US GDP, yields & US dollar in the next 3-6 months."
In parallel to the LEI, an index of so-called coincident economic indicators rose by 0.2% on the month to reach 104.2, with another encompassing 'lagging' indicators slipped by 0.2%.