Week ahead: Investors braced for wave of risk events
Barring surprises, all eyes over the coming week will be focused on the latest monthly US jobs report, on Friday, especially on any sign of any further pick-up.
But first, at the weekend, investors will be keeping close tabs on Sunday's parliamentary elections in Italy and the results of a vote by members of Germany's SPD on whether to form a grand coalition with rival CDU/CSU.
Any negative surprises on either of those two fronts could easily see the week get off to a rather shambolic start.
Quite important next week as well will be the expected announcement by the White House of the details of its proposed tariffs on steel and aluminium - and the response of other countries.
Central banks will not be far from investors minds' either, with the European Central Bank set to meet to decide on policy on Thursday.
Some economists believe the ECB's Governing Council might tweak its forward guidance, omitting any reference to the possibility of increased asset purchases should conditions warrant.
The night before, the US central bank will publish its latest 'Beige Book', ahead of the next meeting of American rate-setters on 20-21 March.
A smattering of Fed speakers are also scheduled to take to the podium, including New York Fed boss Bill Dudley on Tuesday.
Back in the UK, IHS Markit's services sector purchasing managers' index is slated for release on Monday, followed by the industrial production figures for January from the ONS on Friday.
CORPORATE NEWS
For Wednesday's results from Rolls-Royce, the analyst consensus has underlying PBT of £878m, EPS of 34.8p and a 12.0p dividend. For 2018, free cash flow £405m is pencilled in and a 13.4p dividend. Analysts are also hoping for more management updates on initiatives to drive further cost cuts, guidance on aerospace cash generation, more details on Power Systems growth and costs and an an update on the acquisition of ITP and the Marine exit.
As for Legal & General, who will publish its finals on the same day, UBS said investor focus will be on "dividend growth and if L&G can replicate or better the 7% growth achieved last year – we expect it will be close but we see the quality of cash growth and remittances reducing incrementally to support this and reducing the confidence around long-term sustainability."
Esure, another FTSE 350 component that will update markets on the same day, has already provided headline numbers for 2017 and announced the departure of its CEO in mid-January, Deutsche Bank filled in the blanks. The German broker forecast a combined operating ratio of 96.7%, compared with management’s start-of-year guidance of 96%-98% that was subsequently indicated to be at the lower end of this range.
Thursday's results from Aviva will see a focus on updates to the sustainability of Solvency II capital generation, maintaining operating EPS growth after recent disposals, and, UBS said more details on the capital return and redeployment strategy "to increase confidence on the sustainability and potential size of capital return on a multi-year basis". Analysts were also looking for further progress on the digital strategy.
An update from Restaurant Group, noted Deutsche Bank, follows a post close trading update that revealed deteriorating like-for-like trends and an outlook that looks tougher.
Monday March 05
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00) PMI Composite (EU) (09:00) PMI Composite (GER) (08:55) PMI Composite (US) (14:45) PMI Services (EU) (09:00) PMI Services (GER) (08:55) PMI Services (US) (14:45) Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Services (14:45)
FINALS
BATM Advanced Communications Ltd., HGCapital Trust, Microsaic Systems, Telecom Egypt SAE GDS (Regs), Trinity Mirror, Ultra Electronics Holdings
INTERIMS
Abcam, Mysale Group
ANNUAL REPORT Keras Resources , Trinity Mirror
AGMS Kennedy Ventures
Tuesday March 06
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Retail Sales (00:01)
FINALS
Aggreko, Apax Global Alpha Limited , Bodycote, Cairn Homes , Escher Group Holdings, Harworth Group, Headlam Group, Huntsworth, Ibstock , Intertek Group, IWG , Just Eat , Loopup Group , LSL Property Services, MPAC Group, PJSC MNC Norilsk Nickel ADR, SDL, Silence Therapeutics, Sirius Minerals, Yu Group
INTERIMS
CAP-XX Limited, Craneware, Purecircle Limited (DI)
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Ashtead, McCarthy & Stone
ANNUAL REPORT
Apax Global Alpha Limited
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust AGMS Blackrock North American Income Trust , CareTech Holding, Ecofin Global Utilities and Infrastructure Trust , Ediston Property Investment Company, JPMorgan Russian Securities, Nexus Infrastructure , Redx Pharma
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Absrforth Split Level Income Trust
Wednesday March 07
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Stagecoach Group, Van Elle Holdings
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (US) (13:30) Consumer Credit (US) (20:00) Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30) Gross Domestic Product (EU) (10:00) MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Halifax House Price Index (08:30)
Q4
MHP SE GDR (Reg S) GMS Societatea Nationala De Gaze Naturale Romgaz S.A. GDR (Reg S)
FINALS
4Imprint Group, Anpario, Bioquell, CLS Holdings, Equiniti Group , esure Group, FDM Group (Holdings), Hill & Smith Holdings, Legal & General Group, Lookers, MHP SE GDR (Reg S), Microgen, NMC Health, Ophir Energy, Paddy Power Betfair, Pagegroup, Restaurant Group, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Stock Spirits Group , Tritax Big Box Reit , Tyman, WANdisco
INTERIMS
88 Energy Limited (DI), 88 Energy Limited (DI), Netcall, River and Mercantile Group , St Ives
EGMS
Societatea Nationala De Gaze Naturale Romgaz S.A. GDR (Reg S)
AGMS
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. GDR (Reg S), Blackrock Income And Growth Investment Trust, Damille Investments II Ltd, EF Realisation Company Limited (NPV)
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Smith (DS)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Elegant Hotels Group
Thursday March 08
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30) ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45) Factory Orders (GER) (07:00) Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30) GMS Melrose Industries
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
RICS Housing Market Survey (00:01)
FINALS
Alfa Financial Software Holdings , Alliance Trust, Attraqt Group , Aviva, BioPharma Credit , Capital & Regional, Communisis, Communisis, Countrywide, Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Domino's Pizza Group, Frontier Smart Technologies Group Limited, Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Sing.Reg), Impellam Group, Irish Continental Group Units, Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd (Singapore Reg), Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Mandarin Oriental International (Singapore), Premier Oil, Spirent Communications
INTERIMS
Origin Enterprises
ANNUAL REPORT
Attraqt Group , Relx plc
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BioPharma Credit , Jupiter Fund Management , South32 Limited (DI) AGMS Benchmark Holdings
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Fenner, Oxford Metrics
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Aviva 8 3/8% Cumulative Irrd Preference 1, CareTech Holding, CRH, Electronic Data Processing, General Accident (Prf), Grafton Group Units, Greencoat Renewables, Jupiter Fund Management , LPA Group, Safestore Holdings, St. Modwen Properties, Standard Chartered, Temple Bar Inv Trust, Thomas Cook Group
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE Ashmore Group, BHP Billiton, Croma Security Solutions Group, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, Genus, Joules Group, Mid Wynd International Inv Trust, MJ Gleeson , National Westminster 9%pf, Persimmon, Redde, Renishaw, Ricardo, South32 Limited (DI) , Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust, Wilmington
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE Land Securities Group, Premier Global Infrastructure Trust, Raven Russia Ltd 6.5% Red Cnv Pref Shs NPV, UIL Limited (DI), Volta Finance Limited
Friday March 09
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00) Current Account (GER) (07:00) Import Price Index (GER) (07:00) Industrial Production (GER) (07:00) Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30) Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30) Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (09:30) Industrial Production (09:30) Manufacturing Production (09:30)
FINALS
Eurocell , GVC Holdings, Independent News & Media, SIG
ANNUAL REPORT
CRH AGMS Arden Partners, Octopus Titan VCT
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Blackrock Income And Growth Investment Trust, JPMorgan Russian Securities, Nexus Infrastructure , Zytronic
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Daejan Holdings, Hargreaves Lansdown, Henderson Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Residential Secure Income, Warehouse Reit
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Chenavari Toro Income Fund Limited NPV