JPMorgan cuts target price on Inmarsat on maritime woes
JPMorgan Cazenove took a fresh look at Inmarsat ahead of the satellite operator's third-quarter results on 8 November, where it expected "robust" financials but is beginning to get worried about stiffer maritime competition.
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The broker felt the maritime unit was "entering shallow waters" and predicted a 0.3% year-on-year revenue decline, following the 0.1% increase in the second quarter.
On a more positive note, Cazenove, which reiterated its 'neutral' stance on Inmarsat's shares, believes the associated mid-term revenue downgrades appeared likely to be fully offset by aviation and enterprise upgrades, where revenues were projected to be ahead of consensus.
However, as this new balance is expected to produce an unfavourable margin mix, analysts lowered their EBITDA estimates 2% per year and cut its target price on Inmarsat to 615p from 650p.
"Whilst unhelpful, we believe the next six months will see investor attention shift to upcoming developments around the long-running L-band spectrum dispute."
Inmarsat, which connects 34,500 vessels with FleetBroadband via its L-band communications terminals, has urged the FCC to act promptly in approving partner Ligado Networks' proposal to deploy a terrestrial network using 40 MHz of mid-band spectrum in the 1500 MHz to 1700 MHz range.
Cazenove highlighted that, if Inmarsat's L-band spectrum was approved, and then subsequently acquired by a telco, there could be "even more substantial upside potential".